Introduction
In boardrooms and coffee shops alike, the question echoes: will ecommerce continue to grow?
It’s a reasonable inquiry. After the pandemic-fueled explosion of 2020–2021, when ecommerce penetration jumped five years in a matter of months, growth rates inevitably normalized. Headlines about the “retail apocalypse” and the struggles of once-dominant department stores create an impression of an industry in flux. Rising ad costs, supply chain challenges, and the 90% failure rate of new stores add to the narrative of uncertainty.
But the data tells a different story—one of steady, sustained expansion driven by fundamental shifts in consumer behavior and transformative technologies.
The answer to “will ecommerce continue to grow?” is a resounding yes. Not only is ecommerce growing, but it’s also undergoing its most profound transformation since the first secure online transaction in 1994 . The growth isn’t just in sales volume—it’s in the very nature of how commerce operates.
Consider the numbers: Global ecommerce sales are projected to reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, growing 7.2% from the previous year . By 2028, that figure will approach $7.9 trillion . Online’s share of total retail continues its steady climb, from 20.5% in 2025 to an estimated 22.5% by 2028 . In discretionary categories like apparel, electronics, and home goods, online already accounts for 30–50% of sales .
But these figures only tell part of the story. The real transformation lies beneath the surface—in the rise of agentic commerce, where AI shopping assistants act on consumers’ behalf; in the evolution of physical stores into fulfillment hubs; and in the fundamental restructuring of how discovery and purchase decisions occur.
This guide is your definitive resource. Drawing on verified industry data from Shopify, EMARKETER, Adobe Analytics, Digital Commerce 360, and leading retail analysts, you will learn:
- The hard numbers: $6.88 trillion in 2026 sales, 7.2% growth, and 22.5% penetration by 2028
- How AI is becoming the primary shopping channel, influencing 75% of transactions
- Regional growth patterns: China’s dominance, Southeast Asia’s explosion, and mature markets’ steady expansion
- The transformation of physical retail and the new role of stores
- How agentic commerce and “zero-click buying” are reshaping the competitive landscape
- The battle between Amazon’s walled garden and open AI ecosystems—and what it means for merchants
- Common growth mistakes and how to avoid them
- Expert strategies for thriving in the next era of ecommerce
Whether you’re a merchant planning your next move, an investor evaluating opportunities, or simply curious about the future of shopping, this guide provides the clarity you need.
H2: The Hard Numbers: Ecommerce Growth Projections Through 2028
Let’s start with the fundamentals. Before we can assess whether ecommerce will continue to grow, we need to understand its actual trajectory.
H3: Global Ecommerce Sales Forecast
According to Shopify’s analysis of EMARKETER data, global ecommerce sales are forecast to grow steadily through 2028 :
| Year | Retail Ecommerce Sales (Trillions) | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $5.080 | 5.9% |
| 2023 | $5.580 | 9.6% |
| 2024 | $6.007 | 7.7% |
| 2025 | $6.419 | 6.8% |
| 2026 | $6.880 | 7.2% |
| 2027 | $7.375 | 7.2% |
| 2028 | $7.886 | 6.9% |
The pattern is unmistakable: ecommerce is not just growing; it’s growing at a steady, sustainable clip. The compound annual growth rate remains robust, with 2026 projected to bounce back from a slight slowdown in 2025 .
H3: Ecommerce Share of Total Retail
Equally important is ecommerce’s expanding share of total retail sales :
| Year | % of Total Retail Sales |
|---|---|
| 2022 | 19.6% |
| 2023 | 20.1% |
| 2024 | 20.5% |
| 2025 | 20.5% |
| 2026 | 21.0% |
| 2027 | 21.8% |
| 2028 | 22.5% |
This represents a steady march toward a quarter of all retail transactions occurring online. In some markets—China and South Korea—penetration already exceeds 40% .
H3: Beyond the Headline Numbers
Headline Census data places ecommerce penetration at about 16–17% of total retail sales in the United States . This figure has long been used to argue that brick-and-mortar remains dominant. But as PYMNTS points out, this statistic relies on a denominator that masks where consumer choice actually exists .
When you exclude categories where in-person shopping persists largely out of necessity rather than preference—autos, gas, and much of grocery—the picture changes dramatically. In discretionary, higher-margin categories that once sustained physical retail, online already accounts for anywhere between 30–50% of sales .
Even grocery, long considered the final physical store holdout, continues its gradual digital migration as pickup and delivery become routine. Once consumers experience the convenience of ordering online, the physical aisle starts to feel less like discovery and more like friction .
H2: Regional Growth Patterns: Where Ecommerce Is Expanding Fastest
Ecommerce growth isn’t uniform. Different regions are experiencing dramatically different trajectories.
H3: Asia Pacific: The Dominant Force
China remains the world’s largest ecommerce market, accounting for more than 20% of total retail sales in the country. Alongside the United States and Western Europe, these three regions represent 80.5% of global ecommerce sales .
In Asia Pacific, the top five countries—China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia—are expected to see online retail sales increase from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in 2028 . China and South Korea lead globally in ecommerce penetration, each exceeding 40% online retail penetration by 2028 .
H3: Southeast Asia: The Fastest-Growing Market
Southeast Asia is emerging as a powerhouse of ecommerce growth. According to Momentum Works, the region’s GMV reached $114.6 billion in 2024, representing a 15% year-on-year growth .
Key players include:
- Shopee leading with $47.3 billion GMV (41.3% share)
- Lazada at $20.9 billion (18.2% share)
- Tokopedia (now part of TikTok Shop) at $19.9 billion (17.4% share)
- TikTok Shop at $20.3 billion (17.7% share)
- Bukalapak at $3.6 billion (3.1% share)
- Amazon at $1.1 billion (1% share)
Notably, TikTok Shop’s explosive growth—nearly 19x in 2024—demonstrates the power of social commerce in emerging markets .
H3: Latin America: High Growth Potential
Latin America continues to show strong ecommerce growth, driven by increasing internet penetration, mobile adoption, and the expansion of logistics networks. Countries like Brazil and Mexico are seeing double-digit growth rates.
H3: Mature Markets: Steady Expansion
In the United States and Western Europe, growth rates have normalized but remain positive. These markets are characterized by high competition, sophisticated logistics, and the rapid adoption of new technologies like agentic commerce .
H2: The AI Revolution: How Artificial Intelligence Is Fueling Growth
The single most significant driver of ecommerce growth in 2026 isn’t more websites or better logistics—it’s artificial intelligence.
H3: The Rise of Agentic Commerce
Welcome to 2026, the year of agentic commerce, where AI shopping assistants act on behalf of consumers, where three-quarters of online transactions are influenced by AI, and where the battleground has shifted from storefront design to machine-readable data .
According to Adobe Analytics, which tracks over a trillion retail website visits:
- Three-quarters of online shopping transactions and one-quarter of mobile shopping transactions are now referred by AI
- The conversion rate of orders from AI sources is significantly higher than from traditional search or social media
- Shopify reports that AI-driven traffic has increased sevenfold compared to the previous year, while AI-generated transactions have surged elevenfold
H3: Zero-Click Buying
This is what industry experts call “zero-click buying” —consumers purchasing products without ever clicking a “buy” button or leaving their preferred app .
Imagine this scenario: You need to throw a birthday party but are stuck at the office. Instead of spending hours browsing online stores, you simply text your virtual assistant: “Order everything for a Peppa Pig themed party, budget $200, delivery before Saturday” .
A few seconds later, your AI agent automatically scans the market, compares prices between retailers, evaluates product quality and reviews, and automatically processes the payment. A box of perfectly flavored cookies, just the right number of balloons, and fresh food are scheduled for delivery right to your door .
According to Fast Company, this isn’t a distant prospect—it’s a reality happening right now. We’re entering the era of “authorized commerce,” where people are no longer the ones directly pressing the “buy” button .
H3: AI as Growth Multiplier
For merchants, this shift represents both a challenge and an enormous opportunity. When consumers delegate shopping decisions to AI, the competitive focus shifts from front-end website design to back-end data structure and system integration capabilities .
Brands that provide transparent, real-time updated data will be favored by algorithms for recommendations. Those with siloed, outdated, or unstructured product data will simply be invisible to AI shoppers .
H2: The Battle for the Future: Amazon’s Walled Garden vs. Open AI Ecosystems
The rise of agentic commerce has ignited an unprecedented battle in the technology and retail industries. According to Modern Retail, 2026 is being hailed as the “Sputnik” era of the AI commerce industry, with everyone building spacecraft to conquer this new market .
H3: The Challengers: OpenAI and Perplexity
On one side of the battle lines are challengers like OpenAI (the creator of ChatGPT) and Perplexity. Since late 2024, OpenAI has continuously partnered with major retailers such as Target, Instacart, and Walmart to allow users to purchase items directly within the chat interface .
Perplexity has also launched an authorized shopping feature, allowing users to pay a fee for AI to automatically research and place orders .
These partnerships represent a fundamental shift in the retail landscape. Discovery and transaction increasingly happen within AI platforms, not on brand websites or even traditional marketplaces.
H3: The Incumbent: Amazon’s “Firewall” Strategy
On the other side is the giant Amazon. Recognizing the direct threat to its $56 billion advertising empire—which relies on users directly accessing and browsing on Amazon—the corporation has erected “firewalls” .
Amazon blocks data collectors from AI companies, preventing product links from appearing on external chatbot platforms. Tensions escalated when Amazon sent legal letters demanding an end to the practice to Perplexity, arguing that external AI agents could not provide the same accurate pricing and delivery information as Amazon itself .
Instead, Amazon developed its own “weapons,” such as the Rufus conversational assistant (launched in early 2024 and expanded through 2025) and the “Buy For Me” tool, to retain users within its closed ecosystem .
H3: Shopify’s Bet on Agentic Commerce
Shopify is leading the race in the opposite direction with its Agentic Storefronts feature, which allows AI to “read” sellers’ product catalogs and display them as detailed information cards in ChatGPT or Perplexity conversations . Brands that provide transparent, real-time updated data will be favored by the algorithm for recommendations.
Shopify has also partnered with Stripe and PayPal to enable online conversions directly within ChatGPT, known as the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) . This is a significant development and one that could ultimately determine whether a customer converts on your site or a competitor’s, based on which is better prepared for agentic journeys.
To complete a checkout, sites must meet certain requirements :
- Can the bot access the website?
- Can it find the right product?
- Can it complete a guest checkout?
All of this happens without the user interacting directly with the website. You can already ask ChatGPT to attempt a conversion, and it will tell you what its sticking points are to help you troubleshoot .
H2: The Transformation of Physical Retail
Ecommerce growth doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s intimately connected to the transformation of physical retail.
H3: The Department Store Collapse and What It Means
This shift did not begin with Amazon, nor did it start with failing malls. It began when department stores lost their reason for existing .
In 1990, department stores accounted for about 14.5% of U.S. retail sales. By 2024, their share had fallen to 0.5%. Dollar sales peaked in 2001 and declined steadily from there .
That decline mattered because department stores were not just another retail format. They were the organizing infrastructure of physical retail. They aggregated demand, curated selection, and subsidized the economics of the mall. Specialty retailers depended on their foot traffic. When the anchors weakened, the ecosystem built around them became unstable .
H3: The New Role of Physical Stores
Physical retail does not disappear in the ecommerce era. But it loses its role as the primary place where discovery happens and decisions are made . Stores become execution points: fulfillment centers, pickup locations, and showrooms. Not the anchors of the retail ecosystem.
This transformation is already underway. Leading retailers view their physical footprints not as standalone profit centers, but as integrated components of a seamless omnichannel operation.
Examples of successful integration:
- Spar Slovenia grew store sales 7% by adding on-demand delivery, demonstrating that physical stores can thrive by embracing digital channels
- Vijay Sales nearly doubled online orders through digital transformation while maintaining its physical presence
- Cisco Store increased revenue 40% by bringing online-level analytics to physical locations
H3: The Capital Challenge
The transition to experiential and fulfillment-centric stores is likely to be uneven. Well-capitalized retailers, such as luxury brands, leading grocers, and digitally native brands with strong margins, can selectively invest in flagship experiences and hybrid formats. However, mid-tier apparel and footwear players, low-margin department stores, and retailers still recovering from recent disruptions may find it difficult to raise or justify the necessary capital .
H2: Challenges That Could Slow Growth
While ecommerce will continue to grow, several challenges could temper the rate of expansion.
H3: The Returns Crisis
The 2025–2026 holiday season saw ecommerce returns worsen significantly. Industry data shows the overall online order return rate has exceeded 10%, with post-holiday return rates in early January 2026 peaking at 12.2% —a 3 percentage point increase year-over-year .
In dollar terms, during the November–December 2025 holiday season, global ecommerce returns exceeded $181 billion, accounting for 14% of total online consumer spending .
Even more concerning: the proportion of abnormal returns has risen sharply. Fraudulent and abusive returns now account for 12% of all returns, including empty packages, product swapping, and counterfeit replacements—major sources of seller losses .
H3: Rising Customer Acquisition Costs
Customer Acquisition Costs have surged nearly 40% in two years, breaking the paid arbitrage model for many businesses . This means that the cost of acquiring new customers through paid advertising has risen dramatically, compressing margins and making profitability harder to achieve.
H3: The 90% Failure Rate
Despite the massive market opportunity, individual store failure rates remain brutally high. Industry data suggests that roughly 90% of online stores fail within their first 120 days .
The stores that close their doors usually don’t fail because the platform “didn’t work.” They fail because of unit economics and the “build it and they will come” fallacy .
H3: Regulatory and Trade Policy Uncertainty
According to Digital Commerce 360, a “structural reset” is underway in ecommerce driven by AI-powered shopping, autonomous operations, and changing trade policies . With 70% of C-levels expecting threats from protectionism and trade policies, many are prioritizing investments in nearshoring, supplier diversification, AI-driven visibility, and last-mile efficiency .
H2: Common Growth Mistakes and How to Avoid Them
H3: Mistake 1 – Ignoring Structured Data
The error: Treating product data as a simple listing task rather than a strategic asset for AI discovery.
The consequence: Your products are invisible to AI shopping agents, losing revenue before customers ever reach your site .
Avoidance: Invest in consistent product attributes, naming conventions, compliance documentation, and data governance across all channels.
H3: Mistake 2 – Relying on a Single Traffic Channel
The error: Depending 100% on Facebook Ads or Google Shopping without building organic search or retention channels.
The consequence: When ad costs rise (which they inevitably do) or algorithms change, your business collapses.
Avoidance: Diversify traffic sources. Invest in SEO early to get free traffic from Google and AI platforms. Build email lists and retention programs.
H3: Mistake 3 – Ignoring Mobile Experience
The error: Designing for desktop and treating mobile as an afterthought.
The consequence: With over half of ecommerce traffic on mobile and AI agents increasingly mobile-native, you’re losing the majority of potential customers.
Avoidance: Design mobile-first. Test on actual devices. Ensure your site loads quickly and checkout works seamlessly.
H3: Mistake 4 – Underestimating Return Costs
The error: Not building return rates into unit economics and failing to address the root causes of returns.
The consequence: Returns destroy profitability. With rates exceeding 10% and fraud rising, margins evaporate .
Avoidance: Improve product displays, size guides, and quality control. Factor return rates into pricing. Work with platforms to identify and block fraudulent returns.
H3: Mistake 5 – Treating Physical and Digital as Separate
The error: Operating online and offline as independent silos with separate inventory, pricing, and customer data.
The consequence: Inconsistent customer experiences, stockouts in one channel while inventory sits in another, and missed cross-channel opportunities.
Avoidance: Integrate systems so inventory, pricing, and customer data flow seamlessly across channels. Recognize that the customer journey increasingly starts in one channel and ends in another .
H2: Expert Tips and Best Practices for 2026
1. Structure Your Data for AI Discovery
By 2026, a significant portion of your traffic will arrive via AI agents, not human browsers. Audit your product feeds. Are specifications complete? Is sizing information unambiguous? Are materials clearly defined? If a machine cannot understand your product, it cannot recommend your product .
2. Prepare for Agentic Commerce
Understand the requirements for AI-driven transactions. Can bots access your site? Can they find the right products? Can they complete a guest checkout? These factors will determine whether you win or lose in agentic commerce .
3. Diversify Your Channels
Don’t rely solely on one platform or traffic source. The battle between Amazon’s walled garden and open AI ecosystems means you need presence across multiple channels . Brands that bet entirely on one approach risk being locked out of the other.
4. Focus on LTV:CAC, Not Just ROAS
The top merchants track Customer Acquisition Cost, Lifetime Value, and Retention obsessively . If your LTV:CAC ratio is under 3:1, your business model is fragile. One increase in ad costs or return rates will push you into negative territory.
5. Build Retention Mechanisms
In an era of rising acquisition costs, retention is the only sustainable path to profitability. Build email lists, loyalty programs, and post-purchase experiences that turn one-time buyers into repeat customers.
6. Plan for the Return Crisis
With return rates exceeding 10% and fraud rising, build return management into your operations . Improve product displays, create accurate size guides, and work with platforms to identify problematic return patterns.
7. Think in Terms of Systems, Not Just Storefronts
In 2026, ecommerce competitiveness hinges on the speed of operational change, the quality and flow of data, and the reliability of systems as AI takes a more active role in discovery, visibility, and fulfillment .
8. Stay Connected
IDC predicts that 70% of large retailers will invest in data modernization. Connected systems across partners, channels, and functions enable faster response, better decisions, and sustainable growth.
H2: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. Will ecommerce continue to grow in 2026?
Yes. Global ecommerce sales are projected to reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, growing 7.2% from 2025. By 2028, sales will approach $7.9 trillion . Ecommerce’s share of total retail will climb from 20.5% to 22.5% over the same period .
2. What is the projected ecommerce growth rate?
Global ecommerce is projected to grow at approximately 7.2% annually through 2028, with some regional variations. This represents steady, sustainable growth rather than the explosive pandemic-era spikes .
3. Which regions are growing fastest?
Southeast Asia is experiencing the fastest growth, with the region’s GMV reaching $114.6 billion in 2024, up 15% year-on-year . China remains the largest market, with penetration exceeding 40%. Latin America also shows strong growth potential.
4. How is AI affecting ecommerce growth?
AI is becoming the primary driver of ecommerce growth. Three-quarters of online shopping transactions are now referred by AI, and AI-driven traffic to Shopify has increased sevenfold year-over-year . This represents a fundamental shift in how consumers discover and purchase products.
5. What is agentic commerce?
Agentic commerce refers to AI systems that act on the consumer’s behalf to find, compare, and purchase products. Consumers delegate shopping tasks to AI agents, which complete transactions without the user manually clicking “buy” .
6. What is zero-click buying?
Zero-click buying means consumers can purchase products without ever clicking a “buy” button or leaving their preferred app. AI agents handle the entire transaction process .
7. Is Amazon threatened by AI shopping agents?
Yes. Amazon’s $56 billion advertising empire relies on users browsing within Amazon. The company has erected “firewalls” against external AI agents while developing its own tools like Rufus and “Buy For Me” .
8. How do I optimize my store for AI discovery?
Structure your product data for machine readability. Use consistent product attributes, naming conventions, compliance documentation, and data governance. If a machine cannot understand your product, it cannot recommend it .
9. What is the ecommerce market size in 2026?
The global ecommerce market is projected to reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, up from $6.42 trillion in 2025 .
10. What percentage of retail will be ecommerce in 2026?
Ecommerce is projected to account for 21.0% of total global retail sales in 2026, rising to 22.5% by 2028 . In some markets like China and South Korea, penetration already exceeds 40%.
11. Are physical stores dying?
Physical stores are not dying, but their role is transforming. They are becoming execution points—fulfillment centers, pickup locations, and showrooms—rather than primary discovery destinations .
12. What happened to department stores?
Department stores’ share of U.S. retail sales fell from 14.5% in 1990 to 0.5% in 2024. Their core function—physical aggregation and curation—moved online to search engines, marketplaces, and AI agents .
13. What are return rates in 2026?
Overall online order return rates have exceeded 10%, with post-holiday peaks reaching 12.2%. Fraudulent and abusive returns account for 12% of all returns .
14. How much did holiday returns cost in 2025?
Global ecommerce returns during the 2025 holiday season exceeded $181 billion, accounting for 14% of total online consumer spending .
15. What is the success rate for ecommerce stores?
Industry data suggests that roughly 90% of online stores fail within their first 120 days. About 5–10% achieve long-term profitability. Success requires treating your store as a serious business asset, not a side hustle .
16. How do I compete with AI-driven shopping?
Focus on data quality, retention, and multiple channels. Ensure your products are discoverable by AI agents. Build loyalty programs that keep customers coming back directly. Diversify across platforms rather than betting on a single ecosystem.
17. What is the biggest challenge facing ecommerce in 2026?
The biggest challenge is the structural reset driven by AI-powered shopping, autonomous operations, and changing trade policies . Competitiveness now hinges on the speed of operational change, data quality, and system reliability.
18. Can small ecommerce businesses survive in 2026?
Yes, but they must be strategic. Small businesses can compete by focusing on niche markets, exceptional customer experience, and data quality. They can partner with platforms like Shopify that embrace agentic commerce rather than fighting it .
19. How important is SEO in 2026?
SEO is evolving from optimizing for Google to optimizing for AI. Short keywords are no longer effective; AI needs contextually rich, structured data. Brands must focus on “optimizing for being chosen” by algorithms .
20. What is the future of ecommerce beyond 2026?
The future includes deeper AI integration, ambient commerce where payments happen automatically, continued expansion in emerging markets, and further blurring of online and offline channels. The fundamental trajectory is toward more convenience, personalization, and automation.
H2: Conclusion – Growth, Transformation, and Opportunity
So, will ecommerce continue to grow?
The answer is a definitive, data-backed yes.
Ecommerce is not just growing; it’s transforming into something more powerful, more intelligent, and more integrated into daily life than ever before.
The evidence is overwhelming:
- Global sales will reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, growing 7.2%
- Ecommerce will account for 21% of total retail this year, climbing to 22.5% by 2028
- AI now influences three-quarters of online transactions
- Shopify has seen sevenfold growth in AI-driven traffic
- Southeast Asia is growing at 15% annually
- In discretionary categories, online already accounts for 30–50% of sales
But growth doesn’t mean business as usual. The nature of ecommerce is fundamentally changing:
- Discovery is shifting from search engines and social media to AI agents
- Transactions are becoming invisible through zero-click buying
- Competition is moving from front-end design to back-end data quality
- Physical stores are evolving from anchors to execution points
- The battleground is shifting between closed ecosystems (Amazon) and open AI platforms (ChatGPT, Perplexity)
The path forward for merchants:
- Invest in data infrastructure. In the agentic commerce era, your product data is your most valuable asset. Structure it for machine readability.
- Diversify your channel strategy. Don’t bet everything on Amazon’s walled garden or any single platform. Be present where AI agents shop.
- Master your unit economics. With return rates exceeding 10% and rising acquisition costs, profitability requires discipline.
- Build retention. In an era of expensive acquisition, loyal customers are your only sustainable advantage.
- Embrace the transformation. The old ecommerce model is fading. The merchants who thrive will be those who adapt to agentic commerce, zero-click buying, and AI-driven discovery.
The bottom line: Ecommerce will continue to grow—not just in dollars, but in sophistication, integration, and intelligence. The question isn’t whether to participate, but how to participate effectively in this new era.
The opportunity is massive. The trajectory is clear. The only question is whether you’re ready for what comes next.