Introduction
The question surfaces regularly in online forums, business strategy meetings, and anxious entrepreneur conversations: will ecommerce die?
It’s a reasonable question. Headlines about store closures, rising ad costs, and the 90% failure rate of new online stores create an impression of an industry in crisis. The narrative of the “retail apocalypse” has been circulating for years, and ecommerce—once the disruptor—now appears vulnerable to disruption itself.
But the question, as framed, misses the point entirely.
Ecommerce is not dying. It is transforming—and the transformation happening in 2026 is more profound than anything the industry has experienced since the first secure online transaction in 1994 .
Consider the data: Global ecommerce sales are projected to reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, growing 7.2% from the previous year. By 2028, that figure will approach $7.9 trillion . Online sales continue to take a larger piece of total retail, climbing from 20.5% in 2025 to an estimated 22.5% by 2028 . In discretionary categories like apparel, electronics, and home goods, online already accounts for 30–50% of sales .
These are not the numbers of a dying industry.
What is dying is the old model of ecommerce—the model where consumers manually browse, click, and buy. The model where SEO meant optimizing for Google searches. The model where brands could succeed with beautiful websites and mediocre data infrastructure.
Welcome to 2026, the year of agentic commerce, where AI shopping assistants act on behalf of consumers, where three-quarters of online transactions are influenced by AI, and where the battleground has shifted from storefront design to machine-readable data .
This guide is your definitive resource. Drawing on verified industry data from Adobe Analytics, Shopify, Digital Commerce 360, and leading retail analysts, you will learn:
- The truth about ecommerce growth: $6.88 trillion in 2026 sales and climbing
- How agentic AI and “zero-click buying” are fundamentally reshaping the shopping journey
- Why Amazon is building “firewalls” against AI shopping agents—and why Shopify is embracing them
- The structural decline of traditional retail and the new role of physical stores
- What “SEO” means in 2026: optimizing for AI, not just Google
- The hidden crisis: 10%+ return rates and $181 billion in holiday return costs
- Why 90% of stores still fail—and what the successful 10% do differently
- Expert strategies for surviving and thriving in the agentic commerce era
Whether you’re a merchant, marketer, or simply curious about the future of shopping, this guide provides the clarity you need.
H2: The Hard Numbers: Ecommerce Growth in 2026
Let’s start with the fundamentals. Before we can assess whether ecommerce is dying, we need to understand its actual trajectory.
H3: Global Ecommerce Sales Projections
According to Shopify’s analysis of EMARKETER data, global ecommerce sales are forecast to grow steadily through 2028 :
| Year | Retail Ecommerce Sales (Trillions) | % Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $5.080 | 5.9% |
| 2023 | $5.580 | 9.6% |
| 2024 | $6.007 | 7.7% |
| 2025 | $6.419 | 6.8% |
| 2026 | $6.880 | 7.2% |
| 2027 | $7.375 | 7.2% |
| 2028 | $7.886 | 6.9% |
The pattern is clear: ecommerce is not contracting; it’s expanding at a steady clip. The compound annual growth rate remains robust, with 2026 projected to bounce back from a slight slowdown in 2025 .
H3: Beyond the Headline Numbers
Headline Census data places ecommerce penetration at about 16–17% of total retail sales in 2025 . This figure has long been used to argue that brick-and-mortar remains dominant. But as PYMNTS points out, this statistic relies on a denominator that masks where consumer choice actually exists .
When you exclude categories where in-person shopping persists largely out of necessity rather than preference—autos, gas, and much of grocery—the picture changes dramatically. In discretionary, higher-margin categories that once sustained physical retail, online already accounts for anywhere between 30–50% of sales .
Even grocery, long considered the final physical store holdout, continues its gradual digital migration as pickup and delivery become routine. Once consumers experience the convenience of ordering online, the physical aisle starts to feel less like discovery and more like friction .
H3: Regional Leadership
China remains the world’s largest ecommerce market, accounting for more than 20% of total retail sales in the country. Alongside the United States and Western Europe, these three regions represent 80.5% of global ecommerce sales .
In Asia Pacific, the top five countries—China, South Korea, Japan, India, and Australia—are expected to see online retail sales increase from $2.2 trillion in 2023 to $3.2 trillion in 2028 . China and South Korea lead globally in ecommerce penetration, each exceeding 40% online retail penetration by 2028 .
H2: The Rise of Agentic Commerce: How AI Is Reshaping Ecommerce
The single most significant development in ecommerce for 2026 is the rise of agentic commerce—AI systems that act on the consumer’s behalf to find, compare, and purchase products .
H3: From Manual Browsing to Decision Delegation
Imagine this scenario: You need to throw a birthday party for your child but are stuck at the office. Instead of spending hours browsing online stores, you simply text your virtual assistant: “Order everything for a Peppa Pig themed party, budget $200, delivery before Saturday” .
A few seconds later, your AI agent automatically scans the market, compares prices between retailers, evaluates product quality and reviews, and most impressively, automatically processes the payment. A box of perfectly flavored cookies, just the right number of balloons, and fresh food are scheduled for delivery right to your door .
According to Fast Company, this isn’t a distant prospect—it’s a reality happening right now. We’re entering the era of “authorized commerce,” where people are no longer the ones directly pressing the “buy” button .
H3: The Data Behind the Shift
The numbers are staggering. According to Adobe Analytics, which tracks over a trillion retail website visits:
- Three-quarters of online shopping transactions and one-quarter of mobile shopping transactions are now referred by AI
- The conversion rate of orders from AI sources is significantly higher than from traditional search or social media
- Shopify reports that AI-driven traffic has increased sevenfold compared to the previous year, while AI-generated transactions have surged elevenfold
This is what industry experts call “zero-click buying” —consumers purchasing products without ever clicking a “buy” button or leaving their preferred app .
H3: Zero-Click Buying: The New Normal
In 2026, the concept of “zero-click buying” is becoming routine in retail circles . Consumers can purchase products through AI agents without ever visiting a brand’s website. The shopping journey is compressed from “search, browse, compare, decide, purchase” to simply “delegate.”
For consumers, this means shopping transforms from an “operation” to a “decision delegation.” Time costs are dramatically compressed .
For merchants, this means the competitive focus shifts from front-end website design to back-end data structure and system integration capabilities . When consumers no longer browse page by page, brands must ensure their product data—materials, sizes, uses, compliance labels—is structured clearly, semantically complete, and easily understood and extracted by AI .
H2: The Battle for the “Buy Now” Button: Amazon vs. The AI Challengers
Shifting consumer behavior is igniting an unprecedented battle in the technology and retail industries. According to Modern Retail, 2026 is being hailed as the “Sputnik” era of the AI commerce industry, with everyone building spacecraft to conquer this new market .
H3: The Challengers: OpenAI and Perplexity
On one side of the battle lines are challengers like OpenAI (the creator of ChatGPT) and Perplexity. Since late 2024, OpenAI has continuously partnered with major retailers such as Target, Instacart, and Walmart to allow users to purchase items directly within the chat interface .
Perplexity has also launched an authorized shopping feature, allowing users to pay a fee for AI to automatically research and place orders .
These partnerships represent a fundamental shift in the retail landscape. Discovery and transaction increasingly happen within AI platforms, not on brand websites or even traditional marketplaces.
H3: The Incumbent: Amazon’s “Firewall” Strategy
On the other side is the giant Amazon. Recognizing the direct threat to its $56 billion advertising empire—which relies on users directly accessing and browsing on Amazon—the corporation has erected “firewalls” .
Amazon blocks data collectors from AI companies, preventing product links from appearing on external chatbot platforms. Tensions escalated when Amazon sent legal letters demanding an end to the practice to Perplexity, arguing that external AI agents could not provide the same accurate pricing and delivery information as Amazon itself .
Instead, Amazon developed its own “weapons,” such as the Rufus conversational assistant (launched in early 2024 and expanded through 2025) and the “Buy For Me” tool, to retain users within its closed ecosystem .
As Sucharita Kodali, an analyst at Forrester, commented: “As long as Amazon remains the biggest player, ChatGPT is unlikely to easily win the shopping box” . However, pressure is mounting across the industry, forcing retailers to choose sides: build firewalls like Amazon or embrace the wave like Shopify.
H3: Shopify’s Bet on Agentic Commerce
Shopify is leading the race in the opposite direction with its Agentic Storefronts feature, which allows AI to “read” sellers’ product catalogs and display them as detailed information cards in ChatGPT or Perplexity conversations . Brands that provide transparent, real-time updated data will be favored by the algorithm for recommendations.
Shopify has also partnered with Stripe and PayPal to enable online conversions directly within ChatGPT, known as the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) . This is a significant development and one that could ultimately determine whether a customer converts on your site or a competitor’s, based on which is better prepared for agentic journeys.
To complete a checkout, sites must meet certain requirements :
- Can the bot access the website?
- Can it find the right product?
- Can it complete a guest checkout?
All of this happens without the user interacting directly with the website. You can already ask ChatGPT to attempt a conversion, and it will tell you what its sticking points are to help you troubleshoot .
H2: The Transformation of SEO: From Google to AI
In this new landscape, brands face a harsh reality: being discovered by people isn’t enough; they must be chosen by algorithms .
H3: The End of Traditional SEO
A report from Capgemini Group indicates that 25% of global consumers will be using AI-generated content for shopping by 2025. Dreen Yang, a senior leader at Capgemini, emphasizes: “Brands need to move beyond search engine optimization (SEO) thinking and focus on optimizing for being chosen” .
This means SEO in 2026 takes on a completely different form. Short keywords are no longer effective; AI needs contextually rich data . For example, a dress isn’t just “red dress size M,” but must be interpreted by machines as “suitable for a fall wedding in Paris, breathable material.”
H3: Structured Data as Competitive Advantage
“If product data isn’t structured for machines, it won’t surface where shopping now begins—and that means lost revenue before a buyer ever reaches your site,” said Jorrit Steinz, CEO of ChannelEngine .
Steinz noted that companies which performed best in 2025 invested in consistent product attributes, naming conventions, compliance documentation, and governance across marketplaces. Those that entered 2025 with siloed or outdated content are entering 2026 “on the back foot” .
H3: Rich Results and AI Clarity
To stand out in 2026, merchants need more than a blue link in search results. Elite stores use structured data (schema markup) to feed Google and AI platforms detailed product information. This helps display star ratings, prices, and stock levels directly in search results and AI overviews, significantly increasing click-through rates and AI recommendation likelihood.
Successful merchants also ensure proper index management—hiding low-value pages (like “Thank You” pages or tag filters) from search engines to focus “crawl budget” on high-margin product pages .
H2: The Structural Decline of Traditional Retail
Understanding ecommerce’s future requires understanding what’s happening in physical retail—because the two are inextricably linked.
H3: The Department Store Collapse
This shift did not begin with Amazon, nor did it start with failing malls. It began when department stores lost their reason for existing .
In 1990, department stores accounted for about 14.5% of U.S. retail sales. By 2024, their share had fallen to 0.5%. Dollar sales peaked in 2001 and declined steadily from there .
That decline mattered because department stores were not just another retail format. They were the organizing infrastructure of physical retail. They aggregated demand, curated selection, and subsidized the economics of the mall. Specialty retailers depended on their foot traffic. When the anchors weakened, the ecosystem built around them became unstable .
By late 2024, roughly 1,100 U.S. malls remained, with vacancy rates nearing 9% —more than double the broader retail average. Class C malls exceeded 13%. Anchor closures drained foot traffic, and the smaller retailers that relied on them followed .
H3: What Department Stores Provided Didn’t Vanish. It Moved.
What department stores once provided did not disappear. It just moved online .
The new anchors are no longer buildings. They are :
- Search engines that make finding products instantaneous
- Marketplaces that offer infinite selection without inventory risk
- Social feeds that shape influence and discovery
- Recommendation algorithms that personalize curation
- AI agents that organize commerce dynamically and personally, in seconds
For more than a century, department stores solved the “too much choice” problem by curating assortments consumers trusted. Digital platforms took over that role by making search cheap and selection infinite. AI agents now take it one step further by acting on the consumer’s behalf—finding, comparing, and deciding without requiring the consumer to browse at all .
H3: The New Role of Physical Stores
Physical retail does not disappear in the ecommerce era. But it loses its role as the primary place where discovery happens and decisions are made . Stores become execution points: fulfillment centers, pickup locations, and showrooms. Not the anchors of the retail ecosystem.
The 2026 crossover is not simply the moment when online sales exceed brick-and-mortar in the categories that matter. It is the moment when the economic logic of physical aggregation finally breaks .
H2: The Hidden Crisis: Returns and Operational Challenges
While ecommerce grows, it also faces mounting operational challenges.
H3: The Returns Crisis
The 2025–2026 holiday season saw ecommerce returns worsen significantly. Industry data shows the overall online order return rate has exceeded 10%, with post-holiday return rates in early January 2026 peaking at 12.2% —a 3 percentage point increase year-over-year .
In dollar terms, during the November–December 2025 holiday season, global ecommerce returns exceeded $181 billion, accounting for 14% of total online consumer spending .
Even more concerning: the proportion of abnormal returns has risen sharply. Fraudulent and abusive returns now account for 12% of all returns, including empty packages, product swapping, and counterfeit replacements—major sources of seller losses .
H3: Industry Response
Platforms and logistics providers are responding:
- Otto, the German ecommerce platform, has begun banning users with high return rates
- Logistics companies are using AI to identify abnormal return paths
- Merchants are improving product displays, size guides, and local return processing
The industry recognizes that returns are no longer just a seller’s operational problem, but a systemic challenge requiring coordinated solutions from platforms, technology, and merchants .
H2: The 90% Failure Rate: Why Most Ecommerce Stores Still Die
Despite the massive market opportunity, individual store failure rates remain brutally high. Industry data suggests that roughly 90% of online stores fail within their first 120 days .
H3: The Unit Economics Problem
The stores that close their doors usually don’t fail because the platform “didn’t work.” They fail because of unit economics .
Many new merchants launch with a product that costs $10 and sell it for $30. They assume a $20 profit. But they forget the hidden costs that eat that margin alive :
| Cost Component | Amount |
|---|---|
| Product Cost (COGS) | $10 |
| Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) | $25 in ads |
| Shipping & Fulfillment | $5 |
| Transaction Fees | 2.9% + $0.30 |
The math: $30 (Revenue) – $10 (Product) – $25 (Ads) – $5 (Shipping) = -$10 Loss per order .
Most stores bleed money with every sale and don’t realize it until they run out of cash.
H3: The “Build It and They Will Come” Fallacy
The number one reason for the high failure rate is the “build it and they will come” fallacy . New merchants often spend weeks perfecting their logo, choosing the perfect theme, and writing beautiful “About Us” pages—but have zero plan for how to get humans to visit the website.
A physical store in a mall gets “foot traffic” just by being there. A Shopify store is a shop in the middle of a desert. Unless you build a road (Ads, SEO, Social), no one will ever see it .
H3: What the Top 10% Do Differently
If you want to move from the 90% who fail to the 10% who succeed, you must shift your focus from “making the store look pretty” to “making the business work.” The elite tier of merchants excels by optimizing four specific pillars :
- Conversion optimization through strategic social proof and trust signals
- Future-proofed SEO optimized for AI overviews and rich snippets
- Unit economics with focus on Average Order Value and Lifetime Value
- Precise data tracking with server-side attribution
H2: Common Mistakes in the New Ecommerce Landscape
H3: Mistake 1 – Ignoring Structured Data
The error: Treating product data as a simple listing task rather than a strategic asset for AI discovery.
The consequence: Your products are invisible to AI shopping agents, losing revenue before customers ever reach your site .
Avoidance: Invest in consistent product attributes, naming conventions, compliance documentation, and data governance across all channels.
H3: Mistake 2 – Relying on a Single Traffic Channel
The error: Depending 100% on Facebook Ads or Google Shopping without building organic search or retention channels.
The consequence: When ad costs rise (which they inevitably do) or algorithms change, your business collapses.
Avoidance: Diversify traffic sources. Invest in SEO early to get free traffic from Google and AI platforms. Build email lists and retention programs.
H3: Mistake 3 – Ignoring Mobile Experience
The error: Designing for desktop and treating mobile as an afterthought.
The consequence: With over half of ecommerce traffic on mobile and AI agents increasingly mobile-native, you’re losing the majority of potential customers.
Avoidance: Design mobile-first. Test on actual devices. Ensure your site loads quickly and checkout works seamlessly.
H3: Mistake 4 – Underestimating Return Costs
The error: Not building return rates into unit economics and failing to address the root causes of returns.
The consequence: Returns destroy profitability. With rates exceeding 10% and fraud rising, margins evaporate .
Avoidance: Improve product displays, size guides, and quality control. Factor return rates into pricing. Work with platforms to identify and block fraudulent returns.
H3: Mistake 5 – Treating Physical and Digital as Separate
The error: Operating online and offline as independent silos with separate inventory, pricing, and customer data.
The consequence: Inconsistent customer experiences, stockouts in one channel while inventory sits in another, and missed cross-channel opportunities.
Avoidance: Integrate systems so inventory, pricing, and customer data flow seamlessly across channels. Recognize that the customer journey increasingly starts in one channel and ends in another .
H2: Expert Tips and Best Practices for 2026
1. Structure Your Data for AI Discovery
By 2026, a significant portion of your traffic will arrive via AI agents, not human browsers. Audit your product feeds. Are specifications complete? Is sizing information unambiguous? Are materials clearly defined? If a machine cannot understand your product, it cannot recommend your product .
2. Prepare for Agentic Commerce
Understand the requirements for AI-driven transactions. Can bots access your site? Can they find the right products? Can they complete a guest checkout? These factors will determine whether you win or lose in agentic commerce .
3. Diversify Your Channels
Don’t rely solely on one platform or traffic source. The battle between Amazon’s walled garden and open AI ecosystems means you need presence across multiple channels . Brands that bet entirely on one approach risk being locked out of the other.
4. Focus on LTV:CAC, Not Just ROAS
The top merchants track Customer Acquisition Cost, Lifetime Value, and Retention obsessively . If your LTV:CAC ratio is under 3:1, your business model is fragile. One increase in ad costs or return rates will push you into negative territory.
5. Build Retention Mechanisms
In an era of rising acquisition costs, retention is the only sustainable path to profitability. Build email lists, loyalty programs, and post-purchase experiences that turn one-time buyers into repeat customers.
6. Plan for the Return Crisis
With return rates exceeding 10% and fraud rising, build return management into your operations . Improve product displays, create accurate size guides, and work with platforms to identify problematic return patterns.
7. Think in Terms of Systems, Not Just Storefronts
In 2026, ecommerce competitiveness hinges on the speed of operational change, the quality and flow of data, and the reliability of systems as AI takes a more active role in discovery, visibility, and fulfillment .
8. Stay Connected
IDC predicts that 70% of large retailers will invest in data modernization. Connected systems across partners, channels, and functions enable faster response, better decisions, and sustainable growth.
H2: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. Will ecommerce die in 2026?
No. Global ecommerce sales are projected to reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, growing 7.2% from 2025 . Ecommerce is not dying; it is transforming. The old model of manual browsing and clicking is being replaced by AI-driven “agentic commerce” .
2. Is ecommerce growth slowing?
Ecommerce growth has stabilized at a healthy rate. After 9.6% growth in 2023 and 7.7% in 2024, 2026 is projected to grow 7.2% . This is not decline—it’s maturation.
3. What is agentic commerce?
Agentic commerce refers to AI systems that act on the consumer’s behalf to find, compare, and purchase products. Consumers delegate shopping tasks to AI agents, which complete transactions without the user manually clicking “buy” .
4. What is zero-click buying?
Zero-click buying means consumers can purchase products without ever clicking a “buy” button or leaving their preferred app. AI agents handle the entire transaction process .
5. How is AI affecting ecommerce in 2026?
AI is fundamentally reshaping ecommerce. Three-quarters of online shopping transactions are now referred by AI, and AI-driven traffic to Shopify has increased sevenfold year-over-year . AI agents are becoming the primary discovery and decision-making layer for consumers.
6. Is Amazon threatened by AI shopping agents?
Yes. Amazon’s $56 billion advertising empire relies on users browsing within Amazon. The company has erected “firewalls” against external AI agents while developing its own tools like Rufus and “Buy For Me” .
7. What is the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP)?
ACP is a protocol developed by ChatGPT in partnership with Stripe and PayPal that enables online conversions directly within ChatGPT. Sites must meet specific requirements to be compatible with agentic journeys .
8. How do I optimize my store for AI discovery?
Structure your product data for machine readability. Use consistent product attributes, naming conventions, compliance documentation, and data governance. If a machine cannot understand your product, it cannot recommend it .
9. What is the success rate for ecommerce stores?
Industry data suggests that roughly 90% of online stores fail within their first 120 days. About 5–10% achieve long-term profitability. Success requires treating your store as a serious business asset, not a side hustle .
10. Why do most ecommerce stores fail?
Most fail due to poor unit economics—losing money on every sale without realizing it—and the “build it and they will come” fallacy (launching without a traffic plan) .
11. What are return rates in 2026?
Overall online order return rates have exceeded 10%, with post-holiday peaks reaching 12.2%. Fraudulent and abusive returns account for 12% of all returns .
12. How much did holiday returns cost in 2025?
Global ecommerce returns during the 2025 holiday season exceeded $181 billion, accounting for 14% of total online consumer spending .
13. What is the difference between dropshipping and branded DTC success rates?
Low-ticket dropshipping success rates are below 5% due to high competition and rising ad costs. Branded DTC success rates are approximately 15–20% .
14. Are physical stores dying?
Physical stores are not dying, but their role is transforming. They are becoming execution points—fulfillment centers, pickup locations, and showrooms—rather than primary discovery destinations .
15. What happened to department stores?
Department stores’ share of U.S. retail sales fell from 14.5% in 1990 to 0.5% in 2024. Their core function—physical aggregation and curation—moved online to search engines, marketplaces, and AI agents .
16. What is the future of SEO in 2026?
SEO is evolving from optimizing for Google to optimizing for AI. Short keywords are no longer effective; AI needs contextually rich, structured data. Brands must focus on “optimizing for being chosen” by algorithms .
17. How do I compete with AI-driven shopping?
Focus on data quality, retention, and multiple channels. Ensure your products are discoverable by AI agents. Build loyalty programs that keep customers coming back directly. Diversify across platforms rather than betting on a single ecosystem.
18. What is the biggest challenge facing ecommerce in 2026?
The biggest challenge is the structural reset driven by AI-powered shopping, autonomous operations, and changing trade policies . Competitiveness now hinges on the speed of operational change, data quality, and system reliability.
19. Can small ecommerce businesses survive in 2026?
Yes, but they must be strategic. Small businesses can compete by focusing on niche markets, exceptional customer experience, and data quality. They can partner with platforms like Shopify that embrace agentic commerce rather than fighting it .
20. Will people stop visiting websites in 2026?
No. But some users will complete online journeys without ever visiting a brand’s website, staying instead on platforms like Google or ChatGPT . Websites remain essential as “libraries” for AI to gather information, even if users don’t visit them directly .
H2: Conclusion – Transformation, Not Death
So, will ecommerce die?
The answer is a definitive no.
Ecommerce is not dying. It is undergoing the most profound transformation since its inception—a shift from manual, browser-based shopping to AI-driven, agentic commerce.
The evidence is overwhelming:
- Global sales will reach $6.88 trillion in 2026, growing at 7.2%
- AI now influences three-quarters of online transactions
- Shopify has seen sevenfold growth in AI-driven traffic
- In discretionary categories, online already accounts for 30–50% of sales
What is dying:
- The department store model that dominated 20th-century retail
- The era of manual, click-based shopping
- The assumption that beautiful websites alone guarantee success
- SEO strategies focused solely on Google keywords
What is being born:
- Agentic commerce where AI acts on consumers’ behalf
- Zero-click buying where transactions happen automatically
- Data-driven competitiveness where structured product information determines visibility
- Integrated omnichannel where physical stores serve new roles
The path forward:
- Accept the transformation. The old ecommerce model is fading. Embrace agentic commerce or risk irrelevance.
- Structure your data. If machines cannot understand your products, you will be invisible to AI shoppers .
- Diversify your bets. Don’t rely entirely on Amazon’s walled garden or open AI ecosystems. Be present where your customers’ agents shop .
- Master your unit economics. With return rates exceeding 10% and rising ad costs, profitability requires discipline .
- Build retention. In an era of expensive acquisition, loyal customers are your only sustainable advantage.
- Think in systems. The winners in 2026 will be those who can change quickly, integrate seamlessly, and maintain reliable operations .
The question “will ecommerce die?” has always missed the point. The right question is: “How is ecommerce evolving, and am I ready for what’s next?”
The answer to that question will determine who thrives in the agentic commerce era—and who is left behind.